StooltimeCounseling's Blog

Take for example, from left to right: Ina, Rebecca, April and Rachelle.

The Hooters girls are celebrating the 75th anniversary of the Detroit Lions. At the same time, Hooters is celebrating their 25th anniversary. Happy anniversary to both organizations!

In this picture, the Hooters girls are saying, 'Whatever it takes', for a successful reconstruction of the Detroit Lions. Go Lions!

What a nice way to champion support for your team!

Ina showing her version of the Heisman Trophy pose.

The Hooters girls, posing as Charlies Angels, support the Detroit Lions as they prepare to improve.

Here's Nisa showing her Heisman Trophy pose.

Nice Heisman, Arizona!

From left to right: Arizona, Mark Rogers and Nisa.

Thank you, girls, for helping Lions fans find something positive about the Detroit Lions this year. You also give the Stooltime Counseling ball caps a nice look!

http://stooltimecounseling.blogspot.com

Go Lions!   Purge And Resurge!   Rebuilding since 1957.

Dear Mr. Ford,

I don't know if you're listening to what Detroit Lions fans are saying. You can hear it on sports radio and you can read it on the blogs. We are hurting because your $4.5 million dollar baby purchased in 1964, is not worth its current value of $700 million dollars, based on the team's win-loss record to date. We, the fans, are in pain because your baby has just died as evidenced by the 0-16 season.

Some call you an aristocrat, a person who separates themself from the common person. I see you more as a human being. I believe the team's win-loss record bothers you as much as it bothers the typical fan.

Some say you may want to win, but don't need to win, based on being an aristocrat. Again, the human part of you must feel the pain the typical fan feels, most recently exacerbated by the 0-16 2008 season.

I think you have at least two choices as owner of the team, given the multiple decades of disorganized, painful results the organization has produced on the grid iron:

• Anesthetize yourself from the pain so you don't have to deal with it.
• Lean into the pain to go past your comfort zone to make some positive decisions that will help to produce some positive results on the field.

Lions fans are rooting for you to resuscitate the Detroit Lions, your baby. I'm trusting you will show us your humanity by dealing with the pain rather than ignoring it.

You can start by talking about it with the fans so we can do this together. Nobody needs to experience that kind of pain alone.

I love you and I respect you, Mr. Ford. Lets talk!

After experiencing the loss of a loved one, survivors grieve the loss. There is no one way to grieve. People grieve the way they need to grieve. What helps one person may not help another, everybody is different.

As awkward as it feels to relate to somebody who has experienced the loss of a loved one, here are some insights that may help. It is not an all inclusive list. Everybody is different.

• Please talk about him, even though he is gone. It is more comforting to cry than to pretend that he never existed. I need to talk about him, and I need to do it over and over.
• Be patient with my agitation. Nothing feels secure in my world. Get comfortable with my crying. Sadness hits me in waves, and I never know when my tears may flow. Just sit with me in silence and hold my hand.
• When you tell me what I should be doing, then I feel even more lost and alone. I feel badly enough that he is dead, so please don't make it worse by telling me I'm doing this incorrectly.
•  I am not strong. I'm just numb. When you tell me I am strong, I think that you don't see me.
• Just because I look good does not mean that I feel good. Ask me how I feel only if you really have time to listen.
• I don't understand what you mean when you say, "You've got to get on with your life". My life is going on. I've been forced to take on many new responsibilities and roles. It may not look the way you think it should. This will take time and I will never be my old self again. So please, just love me as I am today, and know that with your love and support, the joy will slowly return to my life. But I will never forget and there will always be times when I cry.
• Grief is not like having a cold or the flu. They are different. My grieving may only begin 2 months after his death. Don't think that I will be over it in a year. I am not only grieving his death, but also the person I was when I was with him, the life that we shared, the plans we had, the places we will never get to go together, and the hopes and dreams that will never come true. My whole world has crumbled and I will never be the same.
• I will not always be grieving as intensely, but I will never forget him, and rather than recover, I want to incorporate his life and love into the rest of my life. He is a part of me and always will be, and sometimes I will remember him with joy and other times with a tear. Both are okay.
• I don't have to accept the death. Yes, I have to understand that it has happened and it is real, but there are some things in life that are just not acceptable.
• Please don't say, "Call me if you need anything". I'll never call you because I have no idea what I need. Trying to figure out what you could do for me takes more energy than I have.
• Understand how difficult it is for me to be surrounded by couples, to walk into events alone, to go home alone, to feel out of place in the same situations where I used to feel so comfortable.
• Please don't judge me now - or think that I'm behaving strangely. Remember, I'm grieving. I am in shock. I am afraid. I feel deep rage. I feel guilty. But above all, I hurt. I'm experiencing a pain unlike any I've ever felt before and one that cannot be imagined by anyone who has not walked in my shoes.
• Don't worry if you think I'm getting better and then suddenly I seem to slip backward. I behave that way sometimes. And please don't tell me you know how I feel, or that it's time for me to get on with my life. What I need now is time to grieve.
• Most of all, thank you for being my friend. Thank you for your patience. Thank you for caring. Thank you for helping, for understanding from a distance. Thank you for praying for me.
• And remember in the days or years ahead, after your loss -  when you need me as I have needed you -  I will understand from a distance. And then I will come and be with you.

- Anonymous.

A Good Time Charlie can be defined as someone who seeks pleasure. Good time Charlie sports fans support their team if they're winning, but don't understand me because I'm trying to pull out any positives of a painful year for the Detroit Lions football team. Yes, the season for the Detroit Lions has been frustrating and disappointing for the players, the fans and Lions management. It doesn't mean fans like me stop looking for the good that can happen as a result of all the doom and gloom.

Take for example, from left to right: Ina, Rebecca, April and Rachelle.

The Hooters girls are celebrating the 75th anniversary of the Detroit Lions. At the same time, Hooters is celebrating their 25th anniversary. Happy anniversary to both organizations!

In this picture, the Hooters girls are saying, 'Whatever it takes', for a successful reconstruction of the Detroit Lions. Go Lions!

What a nice way to champion support for your team!

Ina showing her version of the Heisman Trophy pose.

The Hooters girls, posing as Charlies Angels, support the Detroit Lions as they prepare to improve.

Here's Nisa showing her Heisman Trophy pose.

Nice Heisman, Arizona!

From left to right: Arizona, Mark Rogers and Nisa.

Thank you, girls, for helping Lions fans find something positive about the Detroit Lions this year. You also give the Stooltime Counseling ball caps a nice look!

http://stooltimecounseling.blogspot.com

Go Lions!   Purge And Resurge!   Rebuilding since 1957.

The Hooters Girls, posing as Charlies Angels, support the Detroit Lions as they prepare to improve.

Nisa showing her Heisman Trophy pose.

Here's Arizona's version of the Heisman pose.

From left to right: Arizona, Mark Rogers and Nisa. The girls are showing off their Stooltime Counseling ball caps.

From left to right: Ina, Rebecca, April and Rachelle.

They're acknowledging the 75th anniversary of the Detroit Lions football team. Speaking of anniversaries, Happy 25th anniversary to Hooters!

Whatever it takes for a successful reconstruction.

The Hooters girls champion support for a positive purging and resurging of the Detroit Lions. Go Lions!

Nice Heisman, Ina!

Go Lions!   Purge And Resurge!   Rebuilding since 1957.

The Hooters girls, posing as Charlies Angels, support the Detroit Lions as they prepare to improve.

Nisa showing her Heisman Trophy pose.

Lets remember Arizona and her version of the Heisman pose.

From left to right: Arizona, Mark Rogers and Nisa. They were kind enough to model the Stooltime Counseling ball caps, which are for sale on my website:

http://stooltimecounseling.blogspot.com

From left to right: Ina, Rebecca, April and Rachelle. They're acknowledging that the Detroit Lions are celebrating their 75th anniversary. Go Lions!

Speaking of anniversaries, Happy 25th Anniversary to Hooters!

Whatever it takes for a successful reconstruction.

The Hooters girls do their best to champion support for the Detroit Lions. Thanks to all the Hooters girls who are showing their support for a positive purging and resurging process.

A nice Heisman, Ina. Thank you!

The Detroit Lions: Purge And Resurge!

The Hooters Girls, posing as Charlies Angels, support the Detroit Lions as they prepare to improve.

Nisa doing her Heisman trophy pose.

Lets not leave out Arizona.

From left to right: Arizona, Mark Rogers, Nisa. Yes - the Stooltime Counseling ball caps are for sale on the website, Stooltime Counseling.

http://stooltimecounseling.blogspot.com

From left to right: Ina, Rebecca, April and Rachelle. They're acknowledging that the Detroit Lions are celebrating their 75th anniversary this season. Go Lions!

Whatever it takes for a successful reconstruction!

Thanks to all the Hooters girls who are showing their support for a positive purging and resurging of the Detroit Lions NFL football team. Lions fans appreciate your support!

The Detroit 3, formerly known as the Big 3, are asking Congress for $34 billion dollars in loan money to restructure the American car industry so they can retool the factories, salvage jobs and rise once again to be ranked as 3 of Michigan's Brightest and Best places to work. (I added the last one, it sounded positive).

I recently heard a Human Resources expert on the radio recite some numbers that mathematically explains the difference between $34 billion and what it would cost to pay unemployment benefits to millions of people. The expert figured there would be between 5-10 million unemployed people across the country if the Detroit 3 die.

Factory workers, Detroit 3 management, suppliers, distributors, manufacturers, and on and on ... constitute the 5-10 million nation wide employed people associated with the car manufacturing industry.

Lets use a conservative number for the anticipated unemployed people while we do the math. That would be 5 million people. Consider that weekly unemployment benefits = a maximum amount of $362.00 per week X 26 weeks.

5,000,000 (people) X $362.00 (per week) = $1.81 billion spent on unemployment benefits for one week.

$1.81 billion X 26 weeks (maximum number of weeks unless extended by President) = $47.06 billion spent on 5 million people during 6 months. [Multiply the numbers X 2 if using the 10 million number for unemployed workers].

$47.06 billion (unemployment benefits)  is more than $34 billion (loan money).

What is riskier? Paying out 26 weeks of unemployment benefits to 5 million people, who could lose their homes which would make the housing crisis worse, or giving the Detroit 3 a loan? Believe me, it will be tax payers paying out the money either way.

Either way congress decides, it's one big political problem.

Greed and envy might just be the two things that can bring down our economy more than what a terrorist attack can do.

I'm wondering, who is the real enemy against our way of life and the greater good?

Many of us have taken a financial hit as a result of the greed and envy of others. That is little comfort as we watch our multi-year retirement savings lose almost 40% within 2 months.

We are in unchartered financial waters. This financial crisis will take people of integrity to get the economy back on track.

People of integrity, it's time to step-up and do your thing!

The reconstruction (or purging and resurging) of the Detroit Lions is underway. Some local people are offering their support. There will be more pictures to come as I take the banner on tour to different locations to meet local talent, various fans, celebrities and famous people. Please contact me if you're interested in jumping on the bandwagon.

Please check back periodically to view more pictures as they become available.

Thanks to Arizona, Nisa and the rest of the Hooters girls, who were kind enough to pose for the camera. The Charlies Angels pose and the Heisman trophy pose never looked better. Maybe by next year at this time, Lions fans, Lions management and Lions players can be smiling as brightly as all of you, based on a successful reconstruction process that results in a winning season.

Go Lions!

It keeps getting better and better.

In 1975, I won a contest to bowl on TV at Thunderbowl Lanes in Allen Park, MI. It was for a show called, "Bowling For Dollars", hosted by Bob Allison. If I bowled four strikes in a row, I'd win a brand new 1976 Chevy Corvette. For two strikes in a row, I'd win the accumulated jackpot, which was $280.00 at the time. I settled for $10.00 and dinner for two at the Rooster Tail for my spare conversion.

Fast forward to October 28th, 2008. I'm at the same house, Thunderbowl Lanes, but for winning a different contest. This time, it's a contest offered by Fox 2 Detroit. What is originally called, "Rollin' With Roy",  is eventually renamed, "Rollin' With Calvin", because Roy Williams no longer plays for the Detroit Lions. In this contest, six lucky Fox 2 Detroit winners showed-up to bowl a game with Lions wide receiver, #81 Calvin Johnson.

In 1975, I felt nervous being on TV. On October 28th, 2008, I felt thrilled and excited to bowl side-by-side with Calvin Johnson. It was no less a thrill to have Jennifer Hammond in the same room with us. While Hammer graciously hosted the event, using her expert interviewing skills in the process, six lucky bowlers including me, got to bowl with, in my opinion, a future hall of famer in the NFL, #81 Calvin Johnson.

I want to remember Terry D'Esposito, director of Fox 2 Detroit Marketing, and the two camera men, who completed the Fox 2 team to make the event a successful one. It will be one I remember for the rest of my life. 

While Terry and Hammer presented themselves as warm, organized, beautiful, professional and fun-loving, Calvin showed-up in a LARGE, but lean, way. I'm guessing 6'5'', 239 pounds and 5% body fat. Not only does Calvin use his physical presence to play football like a champion, his personality is a sign of a man, who carries himself like a winner!

As far as bowling skills, Calvin, you did better during practice, but let not your heart be troubled, young man. If you ever want to hook-up again, I can teach you what I've learned on the lanes through the years. In that way, the next time you and the team go out to bowl, with a tweak here and there, your finger-tipped-grip-approach will have more accuracy.

It was a pleasure to meet Calvin Johnson, the Fox 2 Detroit team, Kathy King (manager at Thunderbowl Lanes) and fellow contest winners with their families, who came to root for us. I'm glad my fiancee, Kathy, and her mom, Lois, were there for emotional support. By the way, Calvin, Lois has adopted you as her new grandson. You made her day with how you treated her. You are a true gentleman, who has a terrific sense of humor.

The pizza, chicken wings and pop hit the spot. The Fox 2 gear, including the coffee mug I asked Hammer to autograph, was a pleasant surprise. The autographed NFL Wilson football by Calvin Johnson was extraordinary. The four tickets to a recent Lions game were awesome prizes included in this contest, too.

"Bowling For Dollars" in 1975, "Rollin' With Calvin" in 2008. I wonder what's next? I feel more than fortunate. I would describe the Fox 2 contest experience, "Rollin' With Calvin", as providential! 

http://www.myfoxdetroit.com/myfox/pages/Sports/Deta
il?contentId=7743328&version=1&locale=EN-US&layoutCode=
VSTY&pageId=6.1.1

Thank you, Fox 2 Detroit!

Sincerely,

Mark Rogers.

What do you think, Detroit Lions fans? 

Here is the banner I am bringing to the game on 10-26-08, when the Lions play the Redskins. My goal is to get the attention of Fox Sports, Fox 2 Detroit and ESPN to promote the exorcism of the Detroit Lions on national TV.

The idea behind the banner is to encourage the Lions to free themselves of whatever has not been working since the 1950's so they can resurge to once again play like champions.

It may be as simple as getting a new logo to replace "Bubbles" the Lion. An emblem of Bubbles is on the helmet of each and every player. The Lions are not Bubble Heads. Bobble Heads are good, Bubble Heads are not good. I am recommending that Mr. Ford consider going back to the logo used during the 1950's, when the team was of championship caliber.

The exorcism or purging may be as complex as beating the curse of Bobby Layne, much like the Boston Red Sox beat the 86 year old curse of the Bambino to win the world series in 2004. 

The solution to the woes of the Lions might even be found somewhere else on the continuum between the simple and complex.

Lions players, management and fans will know when the purging and resurging is beginning:

• When the team adds up more wins than losses.
• When the players are asking more questions than they are answering.

In any event, it is time for an exorcism. Watch for the banner to show up on TV this Sunday afternoon. If Jim Leyland's brother, Father Tom Leyland (A Catholic priest) is at the game, I ask that he look for the banner and join me in section 101, row 34 at Ford Field. I'll need some help to start this exorcism. Purge And Resurge!

Go Lions!

(Thanks to Sign-A-Rama for putting my idea on vinyl).

What can help the Lions?

• Fire Matt Millen.
• Trade Roy Williams.
• Put Kitna on Injured Reserves.
• Prayers.
• Get rid of the logo named, Bubbles.
• Use the Lions logo from the 1950's.
• Exorcism.
• Be my guest, list others.
• Get rid of the slogan, Restore The Roar. 

Purge And Resurge!

You can't believe everything you hear. Such is the case with the Roy Williams trade to Dallas for 1st, 3rd and 6th round draft choices for next year.

Roy Williams has been saying he wants to play for Detroit. I heard him say it many times, the last of which was to reporters on Sunday and Monday, just 2 days ago. He even asked reporters to quit asking him the question about being traded. He verbally reinforced that he wants to play in Detroit. You really can't believe everything you hear during an interview.

As orgasmic of a trade it is to the sports talking heads, I am not happy right now. Who is going to take Roy's place in the Rollin' With Roy event on 10-21-08?

As one of the winners of the Fox 2 contest, Rollin' With Roy, I am hoping that the bowling part of the contest is not cancelled. In fact, once I collect my thoughts, I am going to e-mail Fox 2 Problem Solvers for some help.

As much as I appreciate the 4 Lions tickets to the Redskins game on 10-26-08, I was looking forward to bowling with Roy Williams on 10-21-08.

Can the Fox 2 Problem Solvers help me with this one?

Roy, it was nice almost getting the opportunity to meet you on the 21st. If you were happy playing for the Lions, a team in my opinion, that had you tagged to become their franchise player, you must be thrilled to be going home to Texas to play for the Dallas Cowboys. Besides, the Cowboys have cheerleaders! 

We will miss you here in Detroit, but good luck to you in Dallas!

I originally posted this on July 1st, 2007, but it is worth re-reading today. The US economic transformation is especially interesting as we get close to electing our next president.

FOUR MAJOR TRANSFORMATIONS
A GLOBAL INTELLIGENCE BRIEFING FOR THE THOUGHTFUL

By,
HERBERT MEYER

Currently, there are four major transformations that are shaping political,
economic and world events. These transformations have profound implications
for American business owners, our culture and our way of life.

1. The War in Iraq

There are three major monotheistic religions in the world: Christianity,
Judaism and Islam. In the 16th century, Judaism and Christianity reconciled
with the modern world. The rabbis, priests and scholars found a way to
settle up and pave the way forward. Religion remained at the center of life,
church and state became separate. Rule of law, idea of economic liberty,
individual rights, human rights - all these are defining points of modern
Western civilization. These concepts started with the Greeks but didn't take
off until the 15th and 16th century when Judaism and Christianity found a
way to reconcile with the modern world. When that happened, it unleashed the
scientific revolution and the greatest outpouring of art, literature and
music the world has ever known.

Islam, which developed in the 7th century, counts millions of Moslems around
the world who are normal people. However, there is a radical streak within
Islam. When the radicals are in charge, Islam attacks Western civilization.
Islam first attacked Western civilization in the 7th century, and later in
the 16th and 17th centuries. By 1683, the Moslems (Turks from the Ottoman
Empire) were literally at the gates of Vienna. It was in Vienna that the
climatic battle between Islam and Western civilization took place. The West
won and went forward. Islam lost and went backward. Interestingly, the date
of that battle was September 11. Since them, Islam has not found a way to
reconcile with the modern world.

Today, terrorism is the third attack on Western civilization by radical
Islam. To deal with terrorism, the U.S. is doing two things. First, units of
our armed forces are in 30 countries around the world hunting down terrorist
groups and dealing with them. This gets very little publicity. Second we are
taking military action in Afghanistan and Iraq. These are covered
relentlessly by the media. People can argue about whether the war in Iraq is
right or wrong. However, the underlying strategy behind the war is to use
our military to remove the radicals from power and give the moderates a
chance. Our hope is that, over time, the moderates will find a way to bring
Islam forward into the 21st century. That's what our involvement in Iraq and
Afghanistan is all about.

The lesson of 9/11 is that we live in a world where a small number of people
can kill a large number of people very quickly. They can use airplanes,
bombs, anthrax, chemical weapons or dirty bombs. Even with a first-rate
intelligence service (which the U.S. does not have), you can't stop every
attack. That means our tolerance "for political horseplay" has dropped to
zero. No longer will we play games with terrorists or weapons of mass
destructions.

Most of the instability and horseplay is coming from the Middle East. That's
why we have thought that if we could knock out the radicals and give the
moderates a chance to hold power, they might find a way to reconcile Islam
with the modern world. So when looking at Afghanistan or Iraq, it's
important to look for any signs that they are modernizing. For example,
women being brought into the work force and colleges in Afghanistan is good.
The Iraqis stumbling toward a constitution is good. People can argue about
what the U.S. is doing and how we're doing it, but anything that suggests
Islam is finding its way forward is good


2. The Emergence of China

In the last 20 years, China has moved 250 million people from the farms and
villages into the cities. Their plan is to move another 300 million in the
next 20 years. When you put that many people into the cities, you have to
find work for them. That's why China is addicted to manufacturing; they have
to put all the relocated people to work. When we decide to manufacture
something in the US., it's based on market needs and the opportunity to
make a profit. In China, they make the decision because they want the jobs,
which is a very different calculation.

While China is addicted to manufacturing, Americans are addicted to low
prices. As a result, a unique kind of economic codependency has developed
between the two countries. If we ever stop buying from China, they will
explode politically. If China stops selling to us, our economy will take a
huge hit because prices will jump. We are subsidizing their economic
development; they are subsidizing our economic growth.

Because of their huge growth in manufacturing, China is hungry for raw
materials, which drives prices up worldwide. China is also thirsty for oil,
which is one reason oil is now at $60 a barrel. By 2020, China will produce
more cars than the U.S. China is also buying its way into the oil
infrastructure around the world. They are doing it in the open market and
paying fair market prices, but millions of barrels of oil that would have
gone to the U.S. are now going to China. China's quest to assure it has the
oil it needs to fuel its economy is a major factor in world politics and
economics. We have our Navy fleets protecting the sea lines, specifically
the ability to get the tankers through. It won't be long before the Chinese
have an aircraft carrier sitting in the Persian Gulf as well. The question
is, will their aircraft carrier be pointing in the same direction as ours or
against us?

3. Shifting Demographics of Western Civilization

Most countries in the Western world have stopped breeding. For a
civilization obsessed with sex, this is remarkable. Maintaining a steady
population requires a birth rate of 2.1. In Western Europe, the birth rate
currently stands at 1.5, or 30 percent below replacement. In 30 years there
will be 70 to 80 million fewer Europeans than there are today. The current
birth rate in Germany is 1.3. Italy and Spain are even lower at 1.2. At that
rate, the working age population declines by 30 percent in 20 years, which
has a huge impact on the economy.

When you don't have young workers to replace the older ones, you have to
import them. The European countries are currently importing Moslems. Today,
the Moslems comprise 10 percent of France and Germany, and the percentage is
rising rapidly because they have higher birthrates. However, the Moslem
populations are not being integrated into the cultures of their host
countries, which is a political catastrophe. One reason Germany and France
don't support the Iraq war is they fear their Moslem populations will
explode on them. By 2020, more than half of all births in the Netherlands
will be non-European.

The huge design flaw in the post-modern secular state is that you need a
traditional religious society birth rate to sustain it. The Europeans simply
don't wish to have children, so they are dying.

In Japan, the birthrate is 1.3. As a result, Japan will lose up to 60
million people over the next 30 years. Because Japan has a very different
society than Europe, they refuse to import workers. Instead, they are just
shutting down. Japan has already closed 2000 schools, and is closing them
down at the rate of 300 per year. Japan is also aging very rapidly. By 2020,
one out of every five Japanese will be at least 70 years old. Nobody has any
idea about how to run an economy with those demographics.

Europe and Japan, which comprise two of the world's major economic engines,
aren't merely in recession, they're shutting down. This will have a huge
impact on the world economy, and it is already beginning to happen. Why are
the birthrates so low? There is a direct correlation between abandonment of
traditional religious society and a drop in birth rate, and Christianity in
Europe is becoming irrelevant. The second reason is economic. When the birth
rate drops below replacement, the population ages. With fewer working people
to support more retired people, it puts a crushing tax burden on the smaller
group of working age people. As a result, young people delay marriage and
having a family. Once this trend starts, the downward spiral only gets
worse. These countries have abandoned all the traditions they formerly held
in regards to having families and raising children.

The U.S. birth rate is 2.0, just below replacement. We have an increase in
population because of immigration. When broken down by ethnicity, the Anglo
birth rate is 1.6 (same as France) while the Hispanic birth rate is 2.7. In
the U.S., the baby boomers are starting to retire in massive numbers. This
will push the "elder dependency" ratio from 19 to 38 over the next 10 to 15
years. This is not as bad as Europe, but still represents the same kind of
trend.

Western civilization seems to have forgotten what every primitive society
understands-you need kids to have a healthy society. Children are huge
consumers. Then they grow up to become taxpayers. That's how a society
works, but the post-modern secular state seems to have forgotten that. If
U.S. birth rates of the past 20 to 30 years had been the same as post-World
War II, there would be no Social Security or Medicare problems.

The world's most effective birth control device is money. As society creates
a middle class and women move into the work force, birth rates drop. Having
large families is incompatible with middle class living. The quickest way to
drop the birth rate is through rapid economic development. After World War
II, the U.S instituted a $600 tax credit per child. The idea was to enable
mom and dad to have four children without being troubled by taxes. This led
to a baby boom of 22 million kids, which was a huge consumer market that
turned into a huge tax base. However, to match that incentive in today's
dollars would cost $12,000 per child.

China and India do not have declining populations. However, in both
countries, there is a preference for boys over girls, and we now have the
technology to know which is which before they are born. In China and India,
many families are aborting the girls. As a result, in each of these
countries there are 70 million boys growing up who will never find wives.
When left alone, nature produces 103 boys for every 100 girls. In some
provinces, however, the ratio is 128 boys to every 100 girls.

The birth rate in Russia is so low that by 2050 their population will be
smaller than that of Yemen. Russia has one-sixth of the earth's land surface
and much of its oil. You can't control that much area with such a small
population. Immediately to the south, you have China with 70 million
unmarried men - a real potential nightmare scenario for Russia.


4. Restructuring of American Business

The fourth major transformation involves a fundamental restructuring of
American business. Today's business environment is very complex and
competitive. To succeed, you have to be the best, which means having the
highest quality and lowest cost. Whatever your price point, you must have
the best quality and lowest price. To be the best, you have to concentrate
on one thing. You can't be all things to all people and be the best.

A generation ago, IBM used to make every part of their computer. Now Intel
makes the chips, Microsoft makes the software, and someone else makes the
modems, hard drives, monitors, etc. IBM even outsources their call center.
Because IBM has all these companies supplying goods and services cheaper and
better than they could do it themselves, they can make a better computer at
a lower cost. This is called a "fracturing" of business. When one company
can make a better product by relying on others to perform functions the
business used to do itself, it creates a complex pyramid of companies that
serve and support each other.

This fracturing of American business is now in its second generation. The
companies who supply IBM are now doing the same thing-outsourcing many of
their core services and production process. As a result, they can make
cheaper, better products. Over time, this pyramid continues to get bigger
and bigger. Just when you think it can't fracture again, it does. Even very
small businesses can have a large pyramid of corporate entities that perform
many of its important functions. One aspect of this trend is that companies
end up with fewer employees and more independent contractors.

This trend has also created two new words in business.integrator and
complementor. At the top of the pyramid, IBM is the integrator. As you go
down the pyramid, Microsoft, Intel and the other companies that support IBM
are the complementors. However, each of the complementors is itself an
integrator for the complementors underneath it. This has several
implications, the first of which is that we are now getting false readings
on the economy. People who used to be employees are now independent
contractors launching their own businesses. There are many people working
whose work is not listed as a job. As a result, the economy is perking along
better than the numbers are telling us.

Outsourcing also confused the numbers. Suppose a company like General Motors
decides to outsource all its employee cafeteria functions to Marriott (which
it did). It lays off hundreds of cafeteria workers, who then get hired right
back by Marriott. The only thing that has changed is that these people work
for Marriott rather than GM. Yet, the headlines will scream that America has
lost more manufacturing jobs. All that really happened is that these workers
are now reclassified as service workers. So the old way of counting jobs
contributes to false economic readings. As yet, we haven't figured out how
to make the numbers catch up with the changing realities of the business
world.

Another implication of this massive restructuring is that because companies
are getting rid of units and people that used to work for them, the entity
is smaller. As the companies+ get smaller and more efficient, revenues are
going down but profits are going up. As a result, the old notion that
"revenues are up and we're doing great" isn't always the case anymore.
Companies are getting smaller but are becoming more efficient and profitable
in the process.


IMPLICATIONS OF THE FOUR TRANSFORMATIONS

1. The War in Iraq

In some ways, the war is going very well. Afghanistan and Iraq have the
beginnings of a modern government, which is a huge step forward. The Saudis
are starting to talk about some good things, while Egypt and Lebanon are
beginning to move in a good direction.

A series of revolutions have taken place in countries like Ukraine and
Georgia. There will be more of these revolutions for an interesting reason.
In every revolution, there comes a point where the dictator turns to the
general and says, "Fire into the crowd." If the general fires into the
crowd, it stops the revolution. If the general says "No," the revolution is
over. Increasingly, the generals are saying "No" because their kids are in
the crowd.

Thanks to TV and the Internet, the average 18-year old outside the U.S. is
very savvy about what is going on in the world, especially in terms of
popular culture. There is a huge global consciousness, and young people
around the world want to be a part of it. It is increasingly apparent to
them that the miserable government where they live is the only thing
standing in their way. More and more, it is the well-educated kids, the
children of the generals and the elite, who are leading the revolutions.

At the same time, not all is well with the war. The level of violence in
Iraq is much worse and doesn't appear to be improving. It's possible that
we're asking too much of Islam all at one time. We're trying to jolt them
from the 7th century to the 21st century all at once, which may be further
than they can go. They might make it and they might not. Nobody knows for
sure. The point is, we don't know how the war will turn out. Anyone who says
they know is just guessing.

The real place to watch is Iran. If they actually obtain nuclear weapons it
will be a terrible situation. There are two ways to deal with it. The first
is a military strike, which will be very difficult. The Iranians have
dispersed their nuclear development facilities and put them underground. The
U.S. has nuclear weapons that can go under the earth and take out those
facilities, but we don't want to do that. The other way is to separate the
radical mullahs from the government, which is the most likely course of
action.

Seventy percent of the Iranian population is under 30. They are Moslem but
not Arab. They are mostly pro-Western. Many experts think the U.S. should
have dealt with Iran before going to war with Iraq. The problem isn't so
much the weapons, it's the people who control them. If Iran has a moderate
government, the weapons become less of a concern.

We don't know if we will win the war in Iraq We could lose or win. What
we're looking for is any indicator that Islam is moving into the 21st
century and stabilizing

2. China

It may be that pushing 500 million people from farms and villages into
cities is too much too soon. Although it gets almost no publicity, China is
experiencing hundreds of demonstrations around the country, which is
unprecedented. These are not students in Tiananmen Square. These are average
citizens who are angry with the government for building chemical plants and
polluting the water they drink and the air they breathe.

The Chinese are a smart and industrious people. They may be able to pull it
off and become a very successful economic and military superpower. If so, we
will have to learn to live with it. If they want to share the responsibility
of keeping the world's oil lanes open, that's a good thing. They currently
have eight new nuclear electric power generators under way and 45 on the
books to build. Soon, they will leave the US. way behind in their ability
to generate nuclear power.

What can go wrong with China? For one, you can't move 550 million people
into the cities without major problems. Two, China really wants Taiwan, not
so much for economic reasons, they just want it. The Chinese know that their
system of communism can't survive much longer in the 21st century. The last
thing they want to do before they morph into some sort of more capitalistic
government is to take over Taiwan.

We may wake up one morning and find they have launched an attack on Taiwan.
If so, it will be a mess, both economically and militarily. The U.S. has
committed to the military defense of Taiwan. If China attacks Taiwan, will
we really go to war against them? If the Chinese generals believe the answer
is no, they may attack. If we don't defend Taiwan, every treaty the U.S. has
will be worthless. Hopefully, China won't do anything stupid.

3. Demographics

Europe and Japan are dying because their populations are aging and
shrinking. These trends can be reversed if the young people start breeding.
However, the birth rates in these areas are so low it will take two
generations to turn things around. No economic model exists that permits 50
years to turn things around. Some countries are beginning to offer
incentives for people to have bigger families. For example, Italy is
offering tax breaks for having children. However, it's a lifestyle issue
versus a tiny amount of money. Europeans aren't willing to give up their
comfortable lifestyles in order to have more children.

In general, everyone in Europe just wants it to last a while longer.
Europeans have a real talent for living. They don't want to work very hard.
The average European worker gets 400 more hours of vacation time per year
than Americans. They don't want to work and they don't want to make any of
the changes needed to revive their economies.

The summer after 9/11, France lost 15,000 people in a heat wave. In August,
the country basically shuts down when everyone goes on vacation. That year,
a severe heat wave struck and 15,000 elderly people living in nursing homes
and hospitals died. Their children didn't even leave the beaches to come
back and take care of the bodies. Institutions had to scramble to find
enough refrigeration units to hold the bodies until people came to claim
them.

This loss of life was five times bigger than 9/11 in America, yet it didn't
trigger any change in French society. When birth rates are so low, it
creates a tremendous tax burden on the young. Under those circumstances,
keeping mom and dad alive is not an attractive option. That's why euthanasia
is becoming so popular in most European countries. The only country that
doesn't permit (and even encourage) euthanasia is Germany, because of all
the baggage from World War II.

The European economy is beginning to fracture. The Euro is down. Countries
like Italy are starting to talk about pulling out of the European Union
because it is killing them. When things get bad economically in Europe, they
tend to get very nasty politically. The canary in the mine is anti-
Semitism. When it goes up, it means trouble is coming. Current levels of
anti-Semitism are higher than ever. Germany won't launch another war, but
Europe will likely get shabbier, more dangerous and less pleasant to live
in.

Japan has a birth rate of 1.3 and has no intention of bringing in
immigrants. By 2020, one out of every five Japanese will be 70 years old.
Property values in Japan have dropped every year for the past 14 years. The
country is simply shutting down.

In the U.S. we also have an aging population. Boomers are starting to retire
at a massive rate. These retirements will have several major impacts:

. Possible massive sell-off of large four-bedroom houses and a movement to
condos.

. An enormous drain on the treasury. Boomers vote, and they want their
benefits, even if it means putting a crushing tax burden on their kids to
get them. Social Security will be a huge problem. As this generation ages,
it will start to drain the system. We are the only country in the world
where there are no age limits on medical procedures.

. An enormous drain on the health care system. This will also increase the
tax burden on the young, which will cause them to delay marriage and having
families, which will drive down the birth rate even further.

Although scary, these demographics also present enormous opportunities for
products and services tailored to aging populations. There will be
tremendous demand for caring for older people, especially those who don't
need nursing homes but need some level of care. Some people will have a
business where they take care of three or four people in their homes. The
demand for that type of service and for products to physically care for
aging people will be huge.

Make sure the demographics of your business are attuned to where the action
is. For example, you don't want to be a baby food company in Europe or
Japan. Demographics are much underrated as an indicator of where the
opportunities are. Businesses need customers. Go where the customers are.

4. Restructuring of American Business

The restructuring of American business means we are coming to the end of the
age of the employer and employee. With all this fracturing of businesses
into different and smaller units, employers can't guarantee jobs anymore
because they don't know what their companies will look like next year.
Everyone is on their way to becoming an independent contractor. The new
workforce contract will be, "Show up at the my office five days a week and
do what I want you to do, but you handle your own insurance, benefits,
health care and everything else."

Husbands and wives are becoming economic units. They take different jobs and
work different shifts depending on where they are in their careers and
families. They make tradeoffs to put together a compensation package to take
care of the family. This used to happen only with highly educated
professionals with high incomes. Now it is happening at the level of the
factory floor worker. Couples at all levels are designing their compensation
packages based on their individual needs The only way this can work is if
everything is portable and flexible, which requires a huge shift in the
American economy.

The U.S. is in the process of building the world's first 21st century model
economy. The only other countries doing this are U.K. and Australia. The
model is fast, flexible, highly productive and unstable in that it is always
fracturing and re-fracturing. This will increase the economic gap between
the U.S. and everybody else, especially Europe and Japan.

At the same time, the military gap is increasing. Other than China, we are
the only country that is continuing to put money into their military. Plus,
we are the only military getting on-the-ground military experience through
our war in Iraq. We know which high-tech weapons are working and which ones
aren't. There is almost no one who can take us on economically or
militarily. There has never been a superpower in this position before.

On the one hand, this makes the U.S. a magnet for bright and ambitious
people. It also makes us a target. We are becoming one of the last holdouts
of the traditional Judeo-Christian culture. There is no better place in the
world to be in business and raise children. The U.S. is by far the best
place to have an idea, form a business and put it into the marketplace. We
take it for granted, but it isn't as available in other countries of the
world.

Ultimately, it's an issue of culture. The only people who can hurt us are
ourselves, by losing our culture. If we give up our Judeo-Christian culture,
we become just like the Europeans. The culture war is the whole ballgame. If
we lose it, there isn't another America to pull us out.


Retired Admiral HERBERT MEYER

Herb Meyer served during the Reagan administration as special assistant to
the Director of Central Intelligence and Vice Chairman of the CIA's National
Intelligence Council. In these positions, he managed production of the US.
National Intelligence Estimates and other top-secret projections for the
President and his national security advisers. Meyer is widely credited with
being the first senior U.S. Government official to forecast the Soviet
Union's collapse, for which he later was awarded the U.S. National
Intelligence Distinguished Service Medal, the intelligence community's
highest honor. Formerly an associate editor of FORTUNE, he is also the
author of several books.

These transformations have profound implications for
American business owners, our culture and our way of life.