Kraniak_the_Maniak's Blog

Strike up the music the band has begun
The Pennsylvania Polka
Pick out your partner and join in the fun
The Pennsylvania Polka

This primary is pointless if you do the math
The Pennsylvania Polka
No matter who wins here, there's no end to the path
The Pennsylvania Polka

Here's the deal:

Right now Obama has 1648 delegates (including latest est. on Super-D-s)
Clinton has 1509 delegates (including latest est. on Super-D-s)

Needed to win: 2025

This translates into Clinton needing to win 94% of the remaining primary votes
or Obama needing to win 68% of the remaining primary votes.

Neither will achieve the number before the convention. Unless one of the candidates concedes, how do you declare a winer?

Clinton will argue that she's won the big states; important to a general election.
Obama will argue that he's won more votes, more delegates and that in the end  is what will take to win the general election.

For her Clinton to support her argument, she must win Pennslyvania. She loses here and she has a much harder time wining the big state argument. The only states remaining are Indiana, North Carolina, Kentucky, Oregon, Kentucky and Montana. There's also Guam and Puerto Rico. The question is, will she concede if she loses in Pennsylvania?

If she doesn't, then she clearly is hurting her party and the party's chances of winning in November. If she only wins by a small margin she also places her party in danger of losing the big election. Why you ask?

The negative campaigning that has reached a fever pitch in Pennsylvania is only going to get worse. A drawn-out drama in Denver at the convention will not help the Dems either. In spite of grabbing the headlines for the duration of the summer, the only publicity is good publicity does not work here.

The Pubs can point to the disarray of the Dems.  The splitting of voters between Obama followers and Clinton followers may take more than a few months to mend.  Right now the two Dem camps are focused on each other, and rising animosity is palpable.  It may be hard for loyal followers to throw their support to what they currently see as the enemy camp.

The sooner the party's nominee is decided, the better the chance of healing and full support.  Obama is not the one who should concede at this point because he is clearly in the lead.  It comes down to Clinton, and it seems clear to me the only way she can win is to argue her way to the title.  She is a lawyer, and a good one.  But what's legal is not always right.  What's procedure is not always proper. The fall out could mean a McCain win.

Advice to Clinton:  Listen to the Pennsylvania Polka.  If the bands not overwhelmingly playing your tune (say a 56% or greater victory) then get off the dance floor for the good of your party.

What's your take?