Justin Ryan's Blog

   The weather is turning warmer (you wouldn't know it as of late), but it will be turning MUCH milder, to the tune of 70s and near 80 by Memorial Day Weekend.  After being cooped up all winter long, we're finally escaping our homes, and getting out more...

   Well, that leads me to this blog...I'm looking for fun things to do here in Michigan!  Don't give me the generic "go out on a lake thing"...I can figure that one out.  This will be my first spring and summer here, and I need a little specific advice on what to do around here!  I'll make a deal, if you give me some ideas, I'll TRY to give you nice weather on the weekends! :)

Justin

Easter Sunday, after leaving the station, after our 10pm newscast, I looked up to the sky, as I was walking to my car. I could see a nearly full moon, while the other half of the sky was covered by tall cumulus clouds from snow squalls fading away over Macomb County.

After a day of hazy sun and temperatures in the upper 30s, more thawing had occured, including to our pond behind the FOX 2 staff parking lot.

While taking a deep breath, and breathing in that crisp, clean Michigan air, there was a little spring thaw going on in my heart. Seeing two lovebird ducks wading in the pond, several yards from where I stood, alternating quacks. The environment absolutly dead silent, outside of their fine feathered communication; then a smile hit my face.

Pride and happiness of living in Michigan, and having such beautiful wildlife; something I did not having growing up in New York. Most of all, knowing warmer days are just around corner really lifted my spirits.

I can't wait to see my webbed friends again; I am thinking of names for them, anyone with any ideas?

Justin

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***11:30am SUNDAY, FEB. 24 UPDATE***

After looking at some new weather data from the American models, looks like all systems are go, so to speak, for out next round of winter weather.

The storm that is beating up the Pacific coastline right now will weaken, and transfer it's energy to the front range of the Rocky Mountains. A storm like this is classified as a northern variant of a Colordo-Trinidad storm, which typically takes a path through the Great Plains, and Ohio Valley.

For many days at FOX 2 News, the Weather Authority team has been talking about a storm track that resembles a Colorodo-Trinidad storm. Latest models take the core of the low pressure through south-central IN, south-central OH, and then start curving it northeast towards western PA and western NY.

That track puts southeastern Michigan on the colder side of the storm; the primarily snowier side of the storm. While I would classify the amount of snow to fall as respectable (most of us in the 4-8" range as of right now), and yes, the timing of this storm will be horrible; causing major headaches for the Tuesday morning commute; another factor that has me concerned is the wind. The pressure gradient in this storm (fancy way of saying the difference in pressure from point A to point B) is impressive. Simple formula...the greater the difference in pressure over a given area, the greater the resultant force; thus, that force is the wind....this storm will be a wind producer!

What also follows this storm will be "fun" as well...a powerful polar airmass rushes in on the backside of the storm, dropping our temperatures for several days 10-15 degrees below normal by day. With a fresh snowpack on the ground, there could be a few nights mid to late next week of single digit low temperatures if skies clear out.

More good news say you Justin? Sure, why not? Looking long range, 7-10 days, we may be doing this all over again :) [more of a devilish, evil smile]

I'll keep you posted with updates, keep checking back!

Justin Ryan - FOX 2 Weather Authority

***ORIGINAL POST FROM FRIDAY EVENING***

Watch out next week....Tuesday to be exact. A clash of Siberian bitter air and warm, juicy Polynesian air over the Pacific Coast have the initial ingredients for a potent storm. That area of low pressure will move through the Great Plains Monday.

Nebraska, Iowa, Illinois, Northern Indiana will get bombarded by a late winter blizzard. I've been watching this potential storm for several days, and the trend has been to bring the storm south. What does that mean?

It means we will be on the colder side of the storm, which would be the snowier side of the low. The wind will pick up, and the snow may be heavy if this track pans out.

The American forecasting models have been hinting at this for a few days, now, nearly 4 days prior to the storm, my favorite model from Europe is on board...in so many words...when you have widespread agreement this far out.....WATCH OUT!

I'll be here all weekend long updating you as we get closer to the storm!

Remember, I am NOT calling for a raging blizzard here, I am saying there is a greater potential now for an important storm here in southeastern Michigan!

Watch out next week....Tuesday to be exact.  A clash of Siberian bitter air and warm, juicy Polynesian air over the Pacific Coast have the initial ingredients for a potent storm.  That area of low pressure will move through the Great Plains Monday. 

Nebraska, Iowa, Illonois, Northern Indiana will get bombarded by a late winter blizzard.  I've been watching this potential storm for several days, and the trend has been to bring the storm south.  What does that mean?

It means we will be on the colder side of the storm, which would be the snowier side of the low.  The wind will pick up, and the snow may be heavy if this track pans out. 

The American forecasting models have been hinting at this for a few days, now, nearly 4 days prior to the storm, my favorite model from Europe is on board...in so many words...when you have widespread agreement this far out.....WATCH OUT!

I'll be here all weekend long updating you as we get closer to the storm! 

Remember, I am NOT calling for a raging blizzard here, I am saying there is a greater potential now for an important storm here in southeastern Michigan!

(Plays the theme music to Jaws as the shark comes closer and closer)  It's coming.....THE COLDEST AIR OF THE SEASON!

Daytime temperatures in the single digits on Sunday!  Violent and harsh wind Saturday night and Sunday morning, gusting to near 50 mph.  Power lines and tree branches may come down, and garbage cans will tumble down the street!

ANYONE ELSE IN NEED OF A SOLID WEEK IN MIAMI BEACH? :)

Pulling together for storm coverage is a team effort, from top to bottom.  No one person is irreplacable, but, without everyone working for a common goal, the end result can't be reached! 

This thank you goes out to all of our LOYAL FOX 2 News viewers and weather spotters.  While participating during the Weather Chat, Blogging, and E-Mailing, the entire weather team was able to communicate with all of metro Detroit instantly and easily.  Knowing how much snow you picked up in your community helped us deliver the message!  We couldn't have done it without you! 

Justin Ryan

Sounds like a good name for a chocolate shoppe, don't you think?  Even a few wandering minds may have other thoughts when I say "sweet spot", which we won't get into for obvious reasons....HOWEVER...meteorologically, the term "sweet spot" in winter forecasting is key.

It refers to the track of a low pressure center, which is poised to deliver the heaviest and most important snow to the area.  While living and forecasting in New York, the "sweet spot" was 75-125 miles off the Jersey Shore, south of Long Island.  This allows all of the low pressure's heaviest moisture to impact the area, while allowing enough cold air to drain in on the backside of the storm, leaving the precipitation as all snow.  While forecasting weather in Huntington, WV, our "sweet spot" was a track over central Virginia, pretty much following I-81 northbound.

So, where is metro Detroit's "sweet spot" for a snowstorm?  A track originating southwest of us (western Kentucky/Tennessee), allowing warm, moist Gulf of Mexico moisture to be sucked into the low, tracking over Cincinnati, OH, to Findlay, OH, then to the south shore of Lake Erie, near Sandusky, OH, moving into lower Ontario is a pretty impressive storm track.  During the climax of the storm, a stiff northeast wind develops, enhancing snowfall rates for communities south and west of Lake Huron (south of Port Huron, into southern and eastern Macomb counties).

So, where exactly is Saturday - Sunday's storm headed? 

 

The red "L" is the low pressure center, the white square is Detroit.  The low, tomorrow midday moves out of Findlay, OH, and heads towards Sandusky, OH (west of Cleveland).  That is a favorable track for wind driven snow.  The black lines you see are isobars....lines of equal pressure.  Bottom line here, the closer the lines are together, the windier it will be.  Those lines are spaced rather close (remember too, I cut this image out, and zoomed in rather tight). 

After all is said and done, conditions will be poor on Sunday...just stay in, stay off the roads, watch team coverage on FOX 2 and here on myfoxdetroit.com. 

Also, I want your photos and your snow totals.  Use keyword MY PHOTO to upload your snow images, family and pet snow photos, or anything else, so I can use them on air.

Send snow totals DIRECTLY to the weather office by clicking CONTACT US, selecting Weather Authority, and inserting all your information.  We will ONLY accept snow totals that have been measured properly (check my blog called SNOW 101 for instructions), and forms that have been fully filled out with name, contact information, etc...

We may not get a white Christmas, but at least the ground will be white!

Seeing our first flakes in Metro Detroit got me excited!  I LOVE SNOW!  Can't wait to see our trees and lawns covered in the powdery goodness.  I also LOVE when FOX 2 viewers send us snow totals.  However, I'm not particuarly fond of "inflated" or erroneous reports.  When a general 3-6" of snow falls in southeastern Michigan, and I'm getting a lone call from West Bloomfield of 11", I know something is wrong there. 

So, we are all on the same page, I took the time to create a quick (and crude) sketch in the paint program (insert chuckles here), explaining the quick and EASY way to report snow this winter.

Ok, let us review this, and put this into ENGLISH!

 

1)  Find a flat, grassy area, away from trees, buildings and fences that is undisturbed.  (No footsteps or doggie tracks).

2)  Before the snow falls, measure how much snow is on the ground from the previous storm (this way when new snow falls, you can subtract that amount).

3)  You need to take 3 measurements, in the shape of a triangle.  Each measurement will be 6 feet from one another, making an equilateral triangle. 

4)  Add up all 3 measurements, then divide by 3 (dividing by how many measurements you took), and that is your snowfall for that storm.  In the above example, measurements of 1", 2" and 3" of snow came to be a 2" snowfall!  Essentially, you are taking an average.

Measure snow this way, and you will have an accurate snow measurement.  Keep a log all winter log at your house and see how much more snow you get (or less) than Metro Airport.  The numbers sometimes can be dramatic.  ALWAYS feel free to send your snow totals to us at FOX 2 News all winter long!

HAPPY MEASURING! :)

Ok, PLEASE tell me I am not the only person in Metro Detroit to have this problem!  Two years ago, our fearless leader (choking on a hairball), President George W. Bush signed into effect an ordinace, pushing the start of Daylight Saving Time one week later, and having it end two weeks earlier.  Please do not get me started on why that makes no sense if you live outside of the I-95 corridor (NY, DC, Philly, Boston)...the purpose of this is to conserve energy....anywho...

Our story beings Saturday night, October 27, 2007, after retiring for the night, and set to wake up at 4:45am, to be into work to deliever the forecast on FOX 2 News Sunday morning, I assume nothing out of the ordinary.  In the middle of the night, I glanced over to my atomic alarm clocked (purchased in Walmart of Huntington, WV 2 years ago if you are interested), and it read: "3:46am".  I think to myself, "Ok, one more hour of shut eye".  Boy would I be in for a rude awakening. 

As the radio turns on promptly at 4:45am, to the tune of (ironically) Huey Lewis & The News' "Gotta Get Back In Time" [from the Back to the Future movies], I begin my typical morning routine before work.  With my cat Flurry tripping me (his way of telling me to feed him), I walk past the microwave, still scratching my eyes, and stumbling around.  With a can of Fancy Feast in hand, I darted back to the nuker, only to see in read "5:57am".  Showing the same level of confusion I showed in Advanced Calculus, I ran to my trusty cell phone for the time.  It certainly would not let me down!  DOHHHHHHHH!  "5:57 am"!  What in the world was going on here?  I had no time to even think about it; I had to get to work.  So, skipping my shower (thankfully smell-a-vision has not been invented yet), and my morning cup of java, I scurried out the door.

While putting the pedal to the metal on I-696, I believe I realized what had happened.  Since we've previously always set our clocks back one hour on the final Sunday in October, this lousy invention followed suit.  Sure enough, I was correct!  How embarrassing!  How in the world could I tell everybody at work about this?  Should I fib, and tell them I just over slept?  Technically I did, but in reality, I didn't!  Would they even believe me?  How far fetched did this one seem? 

Did anyone else have any Daylight Saving blunders? :)

Ok, stop the presses!  Hold the phone!  Step away from the remote, Monday morning quarterbacks! 

Week 1 is in the books in the FOX 2 Fantasy Football Challenge, with the chic and stylin' Fanchon stinging it to the rest of the bozo's participating.  Those of you who decided to join Fanchon's team; smart move...for week one that is!

Championships are not won in week one, empires are not built in days.  This is a labor of love, that requires detail to attention, cunning decisions in the front office, and a little bit of Julius Caesar style back stabbing to get to the top, and once there, never relinquishing it!

Ryan Ermanni has properly named his team Stuff In The Basement; that is where he starts, that is where he finishes.  Lila Lazarus swam the Staits of Mackinac, but will doggie paddle her way to a "ho-hum" mid level finish. 

Do not count out Sports Director and voice of the Lion's Dan Miller, oh no sir.  He is down now, but let me tell you, he is not out.  This man sees up close and personal the players involved in the FOX 2 Fantasy Football Challenge each Sunday, and he knows the "diamonds in the rough".  This alone will make him a top tier competitor, taking him to a SECOND place finish.

I predict the weather, and will make a forecast now for the 2007 FOX 2 Fantasy Football Challenge winner.  With media guides for every NFL team at his disposal, with 7 different draft guides from top fantasy football experts, with a certified doctor to advise him on injuries week to week, this member of the FOX 2 news team will take the crown.  If all of this is not impressive enough, here is the straw that will break the camel's back; this person spends an incredible 6.42 hours a DAY analyzing stats and crunching numbers (and potato chips).  Ladies and gentleman, your projected Fantasy Football Winner (drumroll please........) ALAN LEE!

I should also note, Alan will win this league for the simple fact that I am not playing this year :) 

Who is your pick to win this year's FOX 2 Fantasy Football Challenge?